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Introducing: Pdot Version 2
The first version of Pdot, released in September 2018, was nothing more than a proof of concept. I wanted to show that decentralized prediction markets can be used to track the success of individual people in ways that have never been done before. Indexes were created for three public figures (LeBron James, Ariana Grande, and Donald Trump) as examples for how this could work given the right methodology.
The problem with Pdot’s initial approach was obvious — it was not clear what the indexes were actually tracking. Underlying markets were selected in an extremely arbitrary manner, and there was no way to define the implied volatility for each index. The time until resolution was also event-specific, which created additional challenges associated with Augur’s oracle for longer-term markets.
I spent a lot of time soliciting feedback on ways to rebuild the methodology. The result was a fundamental change in how Pdot indexes are constructed, which is described in detail in the “How It Works” section below. TLDR: Pdot indexes are now using scalar markets on Augur (across well-defined, relevant categories for each index) with quarterly market resolution windows.
Below are the specific details on how it all works. I would greatly appreciate any feedback on this new methodology — it is still very much a work in progress!
How It Works — Version 2:
A Pdot index is a synthetic index that tracks the success of an individual person. The value of each index is derived from the value of a basket of speculative positions held in decentralized prediction markets on Augur. For each index, the portfolio manager will carefully construct a portfolio that tracks the “success” of the index’s target while optimizing for stated levels of volatility. Each index is designed to track performance across one or more of the following dimensions: Achievements & Accolades, Financial Success, and Popularity.
These indexes use special types of prediction markets called Scalar Markets. In a Scalar Market, the final payout is based on the actual outcome’s value within a numerical range — which means that the current share price should represent the “most likely” outcome at a given point in time, as determined by the wisdom of the crowd. As time progresses towards the market’s expiration, the “most likely” outcome may change, and as it does the share price (and thus the index’s value) should adjust accordingly.
To construct an index, the portfolio manager will first select the categories (along with their relative weightings) that will make up the portfolio. The index will then allocate into scalar markets on Augur, based on these weightings, at each market’s current share price. The portfolios are designed to be rebalanced once every 3 months, which means that the underlying markets will typically have an expiration date equal to quarter-end.
Each scalar market will have a minimum and maximum value. This range determines the volatility profile of the market (tighter bands offer more leverage). If the actual outcome ends up at or below the market’s minimum value, the shares will be worth zero. If the actual outcome ends up at or above the market’s maximum value, the shares will be worth two times their value at the midpoint of the range. To ensure an appropriate level of volatility, Pdot will select markets with minimum and maximum values defined by the 5th and 95th percentile outcomes, based on a proprietary analysis performed at the time of market creation. This means that we can expect a 5% chance that the shares will be worth zero at expiration date. Likewise, we can expect a 5% chance that the shares will increase 2x from the midpoint price (which is typically the index’s entry point) at expiration date.
The current value of each index is simply a weighted sum of the adjusted share prices (normalized between 0 and 1) for each market in the index’s portfolio. To control volatility and to ensure that the index’s value will never fall to zero, the index will always keep 10% of the portfolio allocated to “Stable Value”. This means that the index’s value will never fall by more than 90% in a given 3-month period.
A portfolio manager may change the composition of an index at any time (although most changes are expected to occur during the quarterly rollover period). To do this, the total value of the portfolio is reallocated to the new set of markets based on current share prices. Note that a portfolio rebalance will have no immediate impact on the value of the index. The most up-to-date list of each index’s underlying positions (and their relative weightings) will always be visible on Pdot Index.
Pdot io что это
Securities registration termination [Section 12(g)] https://www.conferencecalltranscripts.org/summary/?id=11940348 $PDOT
Quantisnow posted at 2023-03-23T13:13:12Z
$PDOT �� SEC Form 15-12G filed by Peridot Acquisition Corp. II https://quantisnow.com/i/4239708?utm_source=stocktwits 45 seconds delayed.
risenhoover posted at 2023-03-23T13:12:39Z
$PDOT / Peridot Acquisition II files form 15-12G https://fintel.io/sf/us/pdot?utm_source=stocktwits.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=filing
shortablestocks posted at 2023-03-16T15:08:21Z
Zero shares available to short currently in $PDOT. https://shortablestocks.com/?PDOT
shortablestocks posted at 2023-03-15T15:12:47Z
Zero shares available to short currently in $PDOT. https://shortablestocks.com/?PDOT
shortablestocks posted at 2023-03-14T15:14:33Z
Zero shares available to short currently in $PDOT. https://shortablestocks.com/?PDOT
Quantisnow posted at 2023-03-13T20:16:59Z
$PDOT �� SEC Form 4 filed by Peridot Acquisition Sponsor Ii, Llc https://quantisnow.com/i/4194030?utm_source=stocktwits 45 seconds delayed.
fla posted at 2023-03-13T20:16:33Z
$PDOT [15s. delayed] filed SEC form 4: 10% Owner Peridot Acquisition Sponsor II, LLC: Transacted Derivative Securities between 2023-03-13 https://s.flashalert.me/XLL9Zz
Newsfilter posted at 2023-03-13T20:16:12Z
$PDOT Form 4 (statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities) filed with the SEC https://newsfilter.io/a/df93ecde7b1c92a0b7604c22ee7744b3
Quantisnow posted at 2023-03-13T19:09:47Z
$PDOT �� SEC Form 25-NSE filed by Peridot Acquisition Corp. II https://quantisnow.com/i/4193427?utm_source=stocktwits Get the next market-moving insight 45 seconds early at ➡️ https://quantisnow.com/feed ⬅️
fla posted at 2023-03-13T19:09:28Z
$PDOT [15s. delayed] filed form 25-NSE on March 13, 15:08:25 https://s.flashalert.me/ZtXhG
Newsfilter posted at 2023-03-13T19:08:59Z
$PDOT Form 25-NSE (notification filed by national security exchange to report the removal from listing and registration of matured, redeemed or retired securities) filed with the SEC https://newsfilter.io/a/7469e59739cd3b76c23827a59eb48310
intratio posted at 2023-02-28T20:16:28Z
$PDOT Peridot Acquisition Corp II The statistical model assessed that the stock price of this company is not likely to rise soon and is poised to drop further in the coming weeks
intratio posted at 2023-02-26T03:35:45Z
$PDOT Peridot Acquisition Corp II The algorithm has forecasted this company s stock price will hedge lower in the short-term and will have a very negative trend in the upcoming months
Pdot io что это
Запущенный в 2020 году Polkadot иногда называют блокчейном нулевого уровня, потому что на нём размещается целая экосистема блокчейнов. Всё дело в протоколе парачейн, который — если упростить — позволяет обмениваться данными между не связанными друг с другом криптовалютами. Основатель Polkadot Гэвин Вуд (он же — бывший технический директор Эфириума) считает, что его блокчейн работает по всем заветам web3 и его децентрализованной структуры — и кому, как не Вуду, это знать, ведь именно он придумал термин web3 в 2014 году. Токен сети DOT используется для стейкинга, управления и бондинга — так называют действие по связыванию токенов DOT с новыми цепочками сети.